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Showing posts from June, 2021

Why Indian Sugar Sector Surging?

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Jun. 10, 2021 3:26 PM ET Recently indian sugar/ethanol stocks surged upto 100%. More good news sent another wave of buying. Long term prospects are excellent. Ratana21/iStock via Getty Images Indian sugar industry generates revenue mainly through three ways that is  1 Sugar production and export 2 Ethanol production  3 Power generation through bagass  All three revenue streams are set for upward trend. First thing first, major news for the sector came when Indian government preponderance the deadline for ethanol blending target of 20% from 2030 to 2025. Currently it's 8%, decision was made to reduce crude dependency of India. And recently, on Monday, again deadline was being preponed to 2023. It's ridiculously bullish for these stocks. In just next 2 years, India is aiming for 20%, up 12% from Current 8% ethanol blending. This will create huge demand for ethanol, on which sugar industry has the highest margins (30-50%) and no cyclicality, which has been major drawback for these

Unpopular Opinion:10YR and Fed is rightly yelling 'Transitory' through inflation noise

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Today market is divided in two camps. Inflation/deflation debate is right now on everybody's mind and a tug of war is going on.  Greatest gains are made when everybody's pricing in an outcome which turns out to be different. Rapid reprising or corrections happens. 10YR rates have had a stellar run from 0.5 to 1.75, maybe fastest percentage growth in history. Rightly so, since then both hard and soft commodities have doubled or tripled. CPI data allover the world has been pretty high. Whats dramatic in short term is quite Subtle in long term. You can also see periods of rapid rise which same kind of inflation narrative. These spikes in interest rates can be clearly appreciated, and people older enough must be remembering how every other expert called for "death of fixed income" and "end of 30 yr long bond bull market". Today market signals are pretty clear. I am in 'Inflation is transitory camp and most probably today's 5% CPI