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Showing posts from May, 2021

Investing abroad from India is rewarding

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Total global markets capitalization is around 100 trillions. Indian stock market capitalization is in line of 2 trillion. You see, indian markets are 2% of this great arena of capital markets. Why limit yourself, already there is scarcity of sectors with asymmetrical payouts and limiting yourself to just 2% seems not a good idea. Also, we, at garg capital believe in diversification  across the assets as well as across the borders. INTERNATIONAL MUTUAL FUNDS   It is easiest way to invest in foreign markets. There are mutual funds which invest in other international funds. They are called funds of fund.  But ease of investing in these funds comes at a price. They commonly have high expense ratios (annual fee charged by mutual fund company) ie nearly 2% or maybe above. Also there are only handful of these funds. VESTED : US REGISTERED BROKER Vested basically gives you gateway to NYSE (new york stock exchange) listed stocks and etfs. It is cheapest international bro

Government spending is a drag on healthcare system

'Insanity is doing same thing over and over and expecting different result' - Albert Einstein I am sure none would disagree from above quote. But still, apparently we tend to do the same in case of government spending. When we couldn't achieve what we should have, we only tend to go in same direction but with bigger and better. What if the direction we are heading is wrong? I am from India, its been around 70years Indians are independent and still we have major healthcare issues. Most notable are unavailability of healthcare in rural areas and in-affordability of healthcare in urban areas. Also where affordable(essentially free) government healthcare is available, it just simply inefficient and substandard. Why after so many years and huge healthcare spending (averaging about 1% of GDP), we still haven't solved any of the problems? Because, these are the problems created by government itself. Its not just India, any country which has government funded or government insu

CBDCs will give governments absolute control

Without sounding like doom & gloom or a conspiracy theorist or end of world kind of person, I just want to make people aware about CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) and just report, no hypothesis or opinions, just the facts about what powers governments would have if they launch CBDCs. CBDCs are form of digital currencies issued and controlled by Central banks. Currently, currency is issued by governments. Central banks will launch an wallet app where you can see your balance and can send money to any other wallet. Technology beneath this will be blockchain. Why this? It will be 100% secure, impossible to hack and because Central banks having complete control, it will end once and for all problems arise due to cash economy like tax evasion, criminal transactions and transactions damaging to society like bad loans, corruption, etc. But in process of ending these problems, Central banks essentially get few more powers. It's like having a bodyguard, he may protect you but al

Is ageing demographic trend inflationary?

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Mainstream economists have accepted the fact that we are going towards a deflationary future in the long term based on demographic trends. What if its just not true. Ageing demographics maybe argued to be inflationary. we saw mainly three trends which notably proved to be highly deflationary since last few decades.  1 Integration of China into the global economy caused increased in labour pool by up to twice. This obviously led to decrease in average global worker's wages. Wages in developed world fell and Chinese wages rose to meet into an equilibrium in the between. 2 Developed world was still in this sweet spot of demographics where working population exceeded the population dependent on them. It simply means output surplus which is again deflationary. 3 Women participation in labour force increased again causing downward pressure on wages. All the factors are now behind us, and are reversing. Chinese population is ageing as well, developed economies already have a shrinking wor

Indian Sugar Industry

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Indians have a sweet tooth. We consume approximately 370 lakh tons of sugar a year. But we also produce 650 lakh tons. Sugar industry is cyclical and market is usually traded by professional traders. But things are changing, partly because of climate and partly government policies. Sugar stocks are poised for long term growth and re-rating & reprising of this sector. CLIMATE  & INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Apart from India, Brazil and Thialand are two big producers and exporters of sugar in international market . But due to change in climatic conditions there has been failure of Sugarcane crop in Brazil . Brazilian Sugar production fell and new sowing data is showing there is reduction in Sugarcane crop and it is expected that sugar production will again decline in 2021-2022 by Brazil. There is also secular reduction in sugar production in Thiland. Due to this lower sugar production, prices are rising in international markets. This set to benefit Indian Produces. ETHANOL P

Uranium bull market in making

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TIME is my favorite commodity. Second is Uranium. Do you wish you had invested in renewables like wind and solar before massive gains these sector saw in last 3 years? You gonna witness greatest bull market in energy sector in coming years. That's Uranium. Here's the graph of previous uranium bull market. Price of commodity itself rose 7x from under 20$ per pound to 140$ per pound. Uranium equities saw 100x returns.      What went wrong? The infamous Fukushima accident in 2014 in japan shook the world. Japan turned off all its nuclear reactors. From a large uranium buyer, Japan turned into net seller of uranium in spot market. Uranium price plummeted, equities fell like a rock and whole uranium industry is starved off the capital. Now as we transitioning from hydrocarbons to renewables, we are realizing that negative sentiment towards uranium was over exaggeration. After all, uranium has caused least amount of human deaths than any other energy source, its reliable source of ba