In terms of energy, if anything I will call this age as CoalAge.  Just an year ago, oil considered obsolete sticky, goey dinosaur juice which no one wants to consume or produce. Oil went negative for an hour, rates plummeted and producers were starved off the capital. It was perfect la la land for left activists, electric vehicles, renewable like solar and wind and a happy green world. Now coal and oil are having their days, with oil above 75$ per barrel and coal at 11year time highs. Soaring commodity prices made renewables unviable.  Like it or not, we are in coal age.  What are the catalyst I see in this sector to make it a decently performing sector in near future?  First and most important, China Australia trade war and unofficial ban on Australian coal sent coal prices in North America and Asia soaring high. Secondly, earlier long term trend of ESG has led to capital starvation of coal producers, thus decreasing supply. Thirdly, the weather. More heat wave in Northern hemisphere

One lesson I learned very early in life is 'never fight this Government'. They have tools and competence, that one can never imagine from a second world country's government with democratic system. When everyone was dead sure that rupee gonna depreciate, just like every other Asian currency, Indian rupee on contrary strengthened. It was all manipulated, USA put India in list of currency manipulators even then RBI didn't budged. So now if government wants to make India BPO hunt of the world, instead of ignoring it as another government scheme, I looked at the topic quite deeply. Firstly see what telecom minister has to say.  "We've issued a guideline today that's very extensively liberalising the other service providers' guidelines. The guideline is revolutionary in nature that'll make India a very favourable destination for expansion of voice-related Business process outsourcing (BPO) centres," Ravi Shankar Prasad, telecomunication minister. &q

Jun. 10, 2021 3:26 PM ET Recently indian sugar/ethanol stocks surged upto 100%. More good news sent another wave of buying. Long term prospects are excellent. Ratana21/iStock via Getty Images Indian sugar industry generates revenue mainly through three ways that is  1 Sugar production and export 2 Ethanol production  3 Power generation through bagass  All three revenue streams are set for upward trend. First thing first, major news for the sector came when Indian government preponderance the deadline for ethanol blending target of 20% from 2030 to 2025. Currently it's 8%, decision was made to reduce crude dependency of India. And recently, on Monday, again deadline was being preponed to 2023. It's ridiculously bullish for these stocks. In just next 2 years, India is aiming for 20%, up 12% from Current 8% ethanol blending. This will create huge demand for ethanol, on which sugar industry has the highest margins (30-50%) and no cyclicality, which has been major drawback for these

Today market is divided in two camps. Inflation/deflation debate is right now on everybody's mind and a tug of war is going on.  Greatest gains are made when everybody's pricing in an outcome which turns out to be different. Rapid reprising or corrections happens. 10YR rates have had a stellar run from 0.5 to 1.75, maybe fastest percentage growth in history. Rightly so, since then both hard and soft commodities have doubled or tripled. CPI data allover the world has been pretty high. Whats dramatic in short term is quite Subtle in long term. You can also see periods of rapid rise which same kind of inflation narrative. These spikes in interest rates can be clearly appreciated, and people older enough must be remembering how every other expert called for "death of fixed income" and "end of 30 yr long bond bull market". Today market signals are pretty clear. I am in 'Inflation is transitory camp and most probably today's 5% CPI

Total global markets capitalization is around 100 trillions. Indian stock market capitalization is in line of 2 trillion. You see, indian markets are 2% of this great arena of capital markets. Why limit yourself, already there is scarcity of sectors with asymmetrical payouts and limiting yourself to just 2% seems not a good idea. Also, we, at garg capital believe in diversification  across the assets as well as across the borders. INTERNATIONAL MUTUAL FUNDS   It is easiest way to invest in foreign markets. There are mutual funds which invest in other international funds. They are called funds of fund.  But ease of investing in these funds comes at a price. They commonly have high expense ratios (annual fee charged by mutual fund company) ie nearly 2% or maybe above. Also there are only handful of these funds. VESTED : US REGISTERED BROKER Vested basically gives you gateway to NYSE (new york stock exchange) listed stocks and etfs. It is cheapest international bro

'Insanity is doing same thing over and over and expecting different result' - Albert Einstein I am sure none would disagree from above quote. But still, apparently we tend to do the same in case of government spending. When we couldn't achieve what we should have, we only tend to go in same direction but with bigger and better. What if the direction we are heading is wrong? I am from India, its been around 70years Indians are independent and still we have major healthcare issues. Most notable are unavailability of healthcare in rural areas and in-affordability of healthcare in urban areas. Also where affordable(essentially free) government healthcare is available, it just simply inefficient and substandard. Why after so many years and huge healthcare spending (averaging about 1% of GDP), we still haven't solved any of the problems? Because, these are the problems created by government itself. Its not just India, any country which has government funded or government insu

Without sounding like doom & gloom or a conspiracy theorist or end of world kind of person, I just want to make people aware about CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) and just report, no hypothesis or opinions, just the facts about what powers governments would have if they launch CBDCs. CBDCs are form of digital currencies issued and controlled by Central banks. Currently, currency is issued by governments. Central banks will launch an wallet app where you can see your balance and can send money to any other wallet. Technology beneath this will be blockchain. Why this? It will be 100% secure, impossible to hack and because Central banks having complete control, it will end once and for all problems arise due to cash economy like tax evasion, criminal transactions and transactions damaging to society like bad loans, corruption, etc. But in process of ending these problems, Central banks essentially get few more powers. It's like having a bodyguard, he may protect you but al

Mainstream economists have accepted the fact that we are going towards a deflationary future in the long term based on demographic trends. What if its just not true. Ageing demographics maybe argued to be inflationary. we saw mainly three trends which notably proved to be highly deflationary since last few decades.  1 Integration of China into the global economy caused increased in labour pool by up to twice. This obviously led to decrease in average global worker's wages. Wages in developed world fell and Chinese wages rose to meet into an equilibrium in the between. 2 Developed world was still in this sweet spot of demographics where working population exceeded the population dependent on them. It simply means output surplus which is again deflationary. 3 Women participation in labour force increased again causing downward pressure on wages. All the factors are now behind us, and are reversing. Chinese population is ageing as well, developed economies already have a shrinking wor

Indians have a sweet tooth. We consume approximately 370 lakh tons of sugar a year. But we also produce 650 lakh tons. Sugar industry is cyclical and market is usually traded by professional traders. But things are changing, partly because of climate and partly government policies. Sugar stocks are poised for long term growth and re-rating & reprising of this sector. CLIMATE  & INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Apart from India, Brazil and Thialand are two big producers and exporters of sugar in international market . But due to change in climatic conditions there has been failure of Sugarcane crop in Brazil . Brazilian Sugar production fell and new sowing data is showing there is reduction in Sugarcane crop and it is expected that sugar production will again decline in 2021-2022 by Brazil. There is also secular reduction in sugar production in Thiland. Due to this lower sugar production, prices are rising in international markets. This set to benefit Indian Produces. ETHANOL P